What process should teams follow during PI Planning to ensure accurate capacity estimation?

Calculating historical velocity is a crucial process during PI Planning as it provides teams with a data-driven basis for estimating future capacity. Historical velocity reflects the amount of work a team has completed in previous iterations, which allows teams to gauge their performance trends. By analyzing past completed work, teams can make informed predictions about how much work they can realistically commit to in the upcoming Program Increment (PI).

When teams understand their historical velocity, they can use this data to set achievable goals for the upcoming PI, ensuring that they do not overcommit and set themselves up for failure. This method brings an objective measure to capacity planning rather than relying purely on subjective feelings or theoretical assessments, aligning with the empirical nature of Agile practices.

The other processes mentioned, while relevant in different contexts, do not provide the same concrete framework for estimation. Reviewing past sprints can offer context, but it lacks the specificity of quantifying output. Assessing current workflow capacity suggests a focus on present team dynamics and workloads, which can vary widely and may not represent past performance. Gathering team sentiment about workload, although valuable for team morale and understanding, is inherently subjective and does not translate directly into a measurable capacity for future work. Therefore, relying on historical velocity stands out as the most effective means of